1. A small percentage of boron is added to steel in order to





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MCQ->A small percentage of boron is added to steel in order to....
MCQ-> People are continually enticed by such "hot" performance, even if it lasts for brief periods. Because of this susceptibility, brokers or analysts who have had one or two stocks move up sharply, or technicians who call one turn correctly, are believed to have established a credible record and can readily find market followings. Likewise, an advisory service that is right for a brief time can beat its drums loudly. Elaine Garzarelli gained near immortality when she purportedly "called" the 1987 crash. Although, as the market strategist for Shearson Lehman, her forecast was never published in a research report, nor indeed communicated to its clients, she still received widespread recognition and publicity for this call, which was made in a short TV interview on CNBC. Still, her remark on CNBC that the Dow could drop sharply from its then 5300 level rocked an already nervous market on July 23, 1996. What had been a 40-point gain for the Dow turned into a 40-point loss, a good deal of which was attributed to her comments.The truth is, market-letter writers have been wrong in their judgments far more often than they would like to remember. However, advisors understand that the public considers short-term results meaningful when they are, more often than not, simply chance. Those in the public eye usually gain large numbers of new subscribers for being right by random luck. Which brings us to another important probability error that falls under the broad rubric of representativeness. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman call this one the "law of small numbers.". The statistically valid "law of large numbers" states that large samples will usually be highly representative of the population from which they are drawn; for example, public opinion polls are fairly accurate because they draw on large and representative groups. The smaller the sample used, however (or the shorter the record), the more likely the findings are chance rather than meaningful. Yet the Tversky and Kahneman study showed that typical psychological or educational experimenters gamble their research theories on samples so small that the results have a very high probability of being chance. This is the same as gambling on the single good call of an advisor. The psychologists and educators are far too confident in the significance of results based on a few observations or a short period of time, even though they are trained in statistical techniques and are aware of the dangers.Note how readily people over generalize the meaning of a small number of supporting facts. Limited statistical evidence seems to satisfy our intuition no matter how inadequate the depiction of reality. Sometimes the evidence we accept runs to the absurd. A good example of the major overemphasis on small numbers is the almost blind faith investors place in governmental economic releases on employment, industrial production, the consumer price index, the money supply, the leading economic indicators, etc. These statistics frequently trigger major stock- and bond-market reactions, particularly if the news is bad. Flash statistics, more times than not, are near worthless. Initial economic and Fed figures are revised significantly for weeks or months after their release, as new and "better" information flows in. Thus, an increase in the money supply can turn into a decrease, or a large drop in the leading indicators can change to a moderate increase. These revisions occur with such regularity you would think that investors, particularly pros, would treat them with the skepticism they deserve. Alas, the real world refuses to follow the textbooks. Experience notwithstanding, investors treat as gospel all authoritative-sounding releases that they think pinpoint the development of important trends. An example of how instant news threw investors into a tailspin occurred in July of 1996. Preliminary statistics indicated the economy was beginning to gain steam. The flash figures showed that GDP (gross domestic product) would rise at a 3% rate in the next several quarters, a rate higher than expected. Many people, convinced by these statistics that rising interest rates were imminent, bailed out of the stock market that month. To the end of that year, the GDP growth figures had been revised down significantly (unofficially, a minimum of a dozen times, and officially at least twice). The market rocketed ahead to new highs to August l997, but a lot of investors had retreated to the sidelines on the preliminary bad news. The advice of a world champion chess player when asked how to avoid making a bad move. His answer: "Sit on your hands”. But professional investors don't sit on their hands; they dance on tiptoe, ready to flit after the least particle of information as if it were a strongly documented trend. The law of small numbers, in such cases, results in decisions sometimes bordering on the inane. Tversky and Kahneman‘s findings, which have been repeatedly confirmed, are particularly important to our understanding of some stock market errors and lead to another rule that investors should follow.Which statement does not reflect the true essence of the passage? I. Tversky and Kahneman understood that small representative groups bias the research theories to generalize results that can be categorized as meaningful result and people simplify the real impact of passable portray of reality by small number of supporting facts. II. Governmental economic releases on macroeconomic indicators fetch blind faith from investors who appropriately discount these announcements which are ideally reflected in the stock and bond market prices. III. Investors take into consideration myopic gain and make it meaningful investment choice and fail to see it as a chance of occurrence. IV. lrrational overreaction to key regulators expressions is same as intuitive statistician stumbling disastrously when unable to sustain spectacular performance.....
MCQ-> Directions:In the following questions, you have one brief passage with 5 questions following the passage. Read the passage carefully and choose the best answer to each question out of the four alternatives. In May 1966, the World Health Organisation was authorised to initiate a global campaign to eradicate small pox. The goal was to eradicate the disease in one decade. Because similar projects for malaria and yellow fever had failed, few believed that smallpox could actually be eradicated, but eleven years after the initial organisation of the campaign, no cases were reported in the field. The strategy was not only to provide mass vaccinations, but also to isoate patients with active small-pox in order to contain the spread of the disease and to break the chain of human transmission. Rewards for reporting small-pox assisted in motivating the public to aid health workers. One by one, each small-pox victim was sought out, removed from contact with others and treated. At the same time, the entire, village where the victim had lived was vaccinated. Today small-pox is no longer a threat to humanity. Routine vaccinations have been stopped worldwide.Which of the following is the best title for the passage ?
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MCQ-> Answer questions on the basis of the paragraph below We are not only afraid of being in the dark; we are also suspicious of being kept in the dark. We often feel that the universe has a hidden order that we cannot quite comprehend. In ancient times, this order was attributed to the gods – omnipotent beings who controlled humans’ fates. Greek myths in particular portrayed humans as pawns in the great games played by the gods. More recently, there are suspicions of global conspiracies. These conspiracies are cited for events that are too important to be random. We no longer describe them as “Acts of God,” so they must be the work of other people - people who are hiding their influence over us, covering up their involvement. They are keeping the rest of us in the dark. Among the events attributed to these people are political assassinations and UFO sightings. Examining these events in minute detail results in a long list of “coincidences” which, in the minds of the conspiracy buffs, are too numerous to be truly random. There must be a central planner who is at the hub of a sinister form of order. No one admits to the conspiracy, so there must be a cover - up. Better to think that we are all being kept in the dark by sinister forces than to admit that there is no order.Which of the following statements, if true, would weaken the underlying logic of the above passage? i. The human need for order is a highly exaggerated notion. It more often than not leads to creation of theories about the universe. The more sensational the theory, the more prevalent it becomes. ii. The universe is less guided by pure randomness than by well - defined natural processes which are subjected to randomness at varying intervals of time and space. iii. To strengthen their case for a variety of conspiracies the conspiracy buffs are extrapolating from a very small set of observed “coincidences”. iv. The persons propounding the different conspiracy theories are usually novelists who use these theories as a backdrop during the construction of the plots of the novels. v. The human fear of being kept in the dark is much stronger than the fear of lack of order in the working of the universe.....
MCQ-> Venkat, a stockbroker, invested a part of his money in the stock of four companies --- A, B, C and D. Each of these companies belonged to different industries, viz., Cement, Information Technology (IT), Auto, and Steel, in no particular order. At the time of investment, the price of each stock was Rs.100. Venkat purchased only one stock of each of these companies. He was expecting returns of 20%, 10%, 30%, and 40% from the stock of companies A, B, C and D, respectively. Returns are defined as the change in the value of the stock after one year, expressed as a percentage of the initial value. During the year, two of these companies announced extraordinarily good results. One of these two companies belonged to the Cement or the IT industry, while the other one belonged to either the Steel or the Auto industry. As a result, the returns on the stocks of these two companies were higher than the initially expected returns. For the company belonging to the Cement or the IT industry with extraordinarily good results, the returns were twice that of the initially expected returns. For the company belonging to the Steel or the Auto industry, the returns on announcement of extraordinarily good results were only one and a half times that of the initially expected returns. For the remaining two companies, which did not announce extraordinarily good results, the returns realized during the year were the same as initially expected.What is the minimum average return Venkat would have earned during the year?
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